Erdogan thought he was immune to such an Iranian invasion. Erdogan was wrong.
On 22 June, 1941, Hitler’s Nazi Germany invaded the Soviet Union with over 4,000,000 soldiers under Operation Barbarossa. By signing the Molotov-Ribbentrop August 1939 pact, General Secretary Stalin thought the Soviet Union was immune to such a Nazi onslaught. Stalin was wrong. After the Nazi invasion, US President Roosevelt fully supported Stalin by unleashing to him massive, virtually unlimited weapons. World War II was on.
On May 29, 2013, Iran invaded Turkey with millions of Shiite-inspired violent Turkish demonstrators under the guise of protests over building a mall. By imagining Turkey was protected by NATO, Prime Minister Erdogan thought he was immune to such an Iranian invasion. Erdogan was wrong. After the Iranian Shiite invasion, US President Obama fully betrayed Erdogan by unleashing against him massive, virtually unlimited criticism of Turkey. World War III is on.
As background, a Turkish analyst named Abdullah Bozkurt in a recent April 2013 article entitled “Iran’s clandestine operations in Turkey,” wrote the following:
“Iran’s clandestine presence in Turkey is largely hidden from public view in part because Iran prefers to keep a low profile on its activities in Turkey and hides behind ostensibly charitable causes, cultural and educational programs. In fact, this sinister campaign of Iran poses greater danger for Turkey’s national security than potentially a nuclear-armed Iran because of the disruptive nature of activities that are aimed to shake the very fabric of social make-up in Turkish society, creating tremors along fault-lines across the board.”
For example, intelligence indicates that Iran has cultivated strong ties with some Alevi communities in Sivas and neighboring provinces in the heartland of the country where Iranian influence has long gravitated, even during Ottoman times centuries ago. Iran knows that the fragile balance among diverse groups, especially between the Sunni majority and Alevi minority groups, is the soft underbelly of Turkey and wants to use that as a trump card against Turkey. The worry is that Iran banks on this asset it has developed for some time, very much like a volcano flow slowly burning the composition of society. The marking of Alevi houses in different cities and towns in the past couple of years has been a test-run for Iranian intelligence for the reckoning day with Turkey, even though officials publicly downplayed them as the work of children. Hence, in reality, the violent Turkish demonstrations are nothing less than an Iranian volcanic invasion of Turkey’s “underbelly” through Iran’s massive Alevi/Caferi network.
How did Iran come to invade Turkey?
First, the Syria Civil War has exposed a tectonic structural fault-line in Turkey in large part based on Shiite-Sunni lines, with a mixture of politics. Erdogan has come out strongly for the Syrian rebels and his chief opposition leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has come out equally as strongly for Assad’s murderous rule. This fissure was heaved open with the recent Reyhanli terrorist blast which murdered close to 51 Turks. Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu have traded incendiary, if not outright war-like, charges at each other over the blast, and over Turkey’s Syria policy.
Second, Turkey succeeded in the unthinkable: making a medium-term peace with the Kurds. This took the possible Iranian use of the Kurdish card off the table. In fact, Erdogan turned the Kurds into a medium-term ally to defend against the Iranians and the Iranian stooge Iraqi PM al Maliki. This made the Iranians desperate to have to pull the trigger on their Alevi/Caferi Turkish attack.
Third, at the recent May 2013 Erdogan visit to DC, even after 100,000 Syrians have been murdered, and despite the loving Erdogan/Obama smiles, on Syria, Obama left Erdogan with zippo-nada-nothing. So, Turkey has no US backing to do anything except watch Assad murder another 100,000 Sunnis. That leaves Erdogan up a Sunni-creek without a paddle. What’s worse, Erdogan saw that Obama fully intended to enable and help Assad and his Iranian-masters win in Syria. Thus, Erdogan reasons, “If Obama wants Assad and Iran to win in Syria, Turkey will shortly face an existential Iranian nuclear threat.”
Fourth, there are millions of Shiites or Shiite-affiliated Alevi peoples in Turkey. Many come from the lower-classes to begin with. There are anywhere from 4.5M to 25M Shiite Alevies in Turkey (11%-33% out of the total Turkish population of 75,000,000). Because they are Shiite, many keep their true religious affiliation absolutely secret, for fear of discrimination. Some Shiite Turkish Caferi Muslims are even out-right legally second-class citizens based on the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne, and don’t get any funding for their non-Sunni mosques or imams, while Sunni Muslim institutions get total state funding. Suffice it to say, these Turkish under-class citizens are 100% for Assad, and 1,000,000% against Erdogan’s Anti-Assad policy.
So, on June 2, it was not paranoia which caused Erdogan to state: “There are those attending these events organized by extremists. This is not about Gezi Park anymore. These are organized events with affiliations both within Turkey and abroad.” On June 3, Erdogan amplified his foreign element charge: “Our intelligence work is ongoing. It is not possible to reveal their names. But we will have meetings with their heads.”
But the shocker in not Erdogan’s “foreign” allegations to the Turkish riots, it’s Obama’s incendiary pro-rioter, anti-Erdogan reaction to the violence. In almost an eerie replay of Obama’s toppling of Mubarak, Obama appears to be toppling Erdogan.
For on May 31, the US Ambassador to Turkey Ricciardone twice gave a totally pro-riot “statement” that: “Of course, nobody could be happy to see those saddening images. I am not happy either. I wish a speedy recovery to all those injured. But if you are asking me about U.S. foreign policy, as you know, freedom of expression, freedom of assembly, and the right to have peaceful protests are fundamentals of a democracy. I am not going to say anything further.” Then, on June 3, in his daily briefing, White House spokesman Jay Carney says the White House believes “the vast majority of the protesters have been peaceful.” He also says “all democracies have issues that they need to work through.” Not to be out-done, US Sec. of State Kerry lobbed an explosive, pro-riot bombshell at Erdogan: “We are concerned by the reports of excessive use of force by the police. We obviously hope that there will be a full investigation of those incidents and full restraint from the police force.”
Obama’s mouthpieces have more criticism for a mostly democratic Muslim NATO ally then they do for the mass-murderer Assad. It seems like Obama is more intent to stoke the pro-Iranian flames of the riots in Turkey, than he is to stop the mass-murder of Sunnis in Syria.
In sum, it has become clear that Obama wasn’t the “Manchurian Candidate;” he was the ‘Iranian Candidate.’ From November 2008 to now, Obama’s Middle East policy has been a sub rosa American installation of an Iranian absolute hegemony over the entire Middle East. The catastrophic consequence of Obama’s rabidly pro-Iranian Shiite Caliphatic coronation is an existential threat to the Middle East, and the world.
The writer, who often writes on security issues, has created an original educational 3d Topographic Map System of Israel to facilitate clear understanding of the dangers facing Israel and its water supply. It has been studied by US lawmakers and can be seen at www.marklangfan.com